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Xinhuanet Yangtze River Delta Channel December 8 news: Authoritative sources disclosed that this year's domestic automobile production capacity will reach 10.2 million vehicles, and this year it will be able to sell about 5.5 million vehicles, the entire capacity utilization rate is only 55%. At the same time, manufacturers are stepping into the footsteps of a new round of capacity expansion. It is expected that by the end of the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€, the automobile production capacity will reach 20 million vehicles, of which 10 million will have a crisis of excess capacity. As a result, some experts exclaimed: "Emergency braking" is a must!
The opposite view is that excess production capacity is not a bad thing. Without a certain excess capacity, there will be no sufficient market competition. In a sense, overcapacity may become a catalyst for mergers, reorganizations and industry consolidation in the automotive industry.
At the "2005 China Automotive Industry Summit" organized by the China Europe International Business School, a researcher at the Development Center of the State Council Chen Qingtai said that the utilization rate of domestic automobile capacity is expected to reach only 55% this year. The publication of this data suddenly caused the audience to be shocked.
What is even more worrying is that data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that national car production rose by 17.7% in the first three quarters of the year, with 40,000 new inventories, and profits of 15 major car companies fell by 51.3%.
However, contrary to the view of overcapacity, the expansion projects of major automakers across the country are being launched. The foreign auto giants and national auto companies are each ambitious. They are trying to turn pressure into momentum and embark on a new round of capacity expansion. pace.
New round of capacity expansion
At the same time as the Japanese vehicles formulate a global expansion plan, FAW Toyota has already established a third factory and the production capacity will be increased to more than 300,000. GAC Toyota's joint venture engine plant will also expand its production capacity from 300,000 units to 500,000 units. The combined capacity of Dongfeng Honda and Guangzhou Honda has reached more than 400,000 vehicles, and by 2006 this number will reach 530,000. By next year, Guangzhou Honda's second plant with 360,000 capacity will be officially opened in Zengcheng. Dongfeng Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. said at the offline ceremony of the 300,000 vehicles not long ago that its production will increase from 150,000 to 240,000, and the new Dongfeng Nissan engine plant with a scale of more than 300,000 will also be completed and put into operation next year.
Korean cars with good performance in the Chinese market have established second factories. Beijing Hyundai, just two years old, has already announced that it will start construction of a second plant with a capacity of 300,000 next year, and will form an annual production capacity of 600,000 units in 2008. The planned production capacity of the second Yancheng plant in Dongfeng Yueda Kia reached 430,000.
Not long ago, Volkswagen China President and CEO Van Anders announced the temporary suspension of capacity investment. However, besides the general market performance has plummeted, the calls for increased production capacity in Europe and the United States are also rising and falling. At the beginning of this year, the Changan Ford Nanjing No. 2 Plant with an annual production capacity of 160,000 units was approved by the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Chongqing Phase II Plant also expanded its production capacity to 160,000 units. In recent years, Shanghai GM has completed the layout of four major vehicle manufacturers, including Pudong, Yantai and Shenyang, and its production capacity will reach 480,000.
In terms of self-owned brands, Geely also operates two bases in Lanzhou and Xiangtan, and plans to produce 700,000 domestic vehicles by 2010. Shanghai Maple Automotive also recently launched a second-phase construction project that includes 300,000 complete vehicles and 300,000 sets of engine production capacity.
In 2003, there was a spate of automobile production expansion. It was because of the blowout in the auto market and the auto industry was experiencing a “great mountain river†event. Today's auto market is no longer the same, new cars and new auto giants are joining in, auto profits have entered the “butterfly eraâ€, and increasingly intensified market competition has aggravated the sense of crisis. At this time, the auto industry has seen a new round of expansion. It is doubtful that heat is a blessing or a curse.
Overcapacity in automobiles has become irreversible
Recently, at the "2005 China Automotive Industry Summit Forum," the State Council Development Center researcher Chen Qingtai said that the current domestic automobile industry has reached an annual production capacity of 8 million vehicles, and this year is expected to increase by 2.2 million, reaching 10.2 million vehicles. With the production capacity, there are 10 million vehicles that the manufacturers are prepared to invest in. At the same time, this year's market sales volume is 5.5 million, and the entire industry's capacity utilization rate is only 55%. Therefore, despite the 17.9% increase in sales of the automotive industry this year, profits have fallen by 52.9%, of which 15 companies have suffered losses, profits of 8 companies have decreased, and profits of only 3 companies have increased.
It is not just Chen Qingtai who holds the same view. In mid-November, Chen Bin, deputy director of the Industrial Development Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated at the “2006 China Industry Development Report Meeting†that the overcapacity situation in China’s auto industry during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period will be even more severe. In the final period, the production capacity of the automotive industry will more than double the actual demand. According to the annual growth rate of 10% proposed by relevant departments, the automobile production and sales volume in 2010 will increase to about 9 million vehicles. If the investment expansion is not limited, the production capacity of the automobile will reach 20 million at the end of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, and 1,000. Millions of production capacity will face the danger of emptying.
Take Dongfeng Yueda Kia as an example. From January to September of this year, the company’s overall sales volume is only 73,814 units. Even if it can reach 100,000 units by the end of the year, it will be able to grow at a rate of 20% within five years. By 2010, Dongfeng Yueda Kia’s sales are still far behind the 430,000 planned capacity of the second Yancheng plant. Even Shanghai GM, which has a good sales momentum, sold only 249,000 vehicles in the first 10 months of this year, and it has not yet reached the international standard of 70-75% of production capacity.
Overcapacity can be an industry catalyst?
"The NDRC's data is certainly authoritative, but I still believe that most Chinese companies are now very happy. Most of the data are watery. At least 70% of the data on the expansion of automobile production capacity must be used." Zhu Ronghua, vice president of Chang'an Group, is in Shanghai China Europe International Business School "2005 China Automotive Industry Summit Forum" questioned the overcapacity of cars.
Zhu Ronghua believes that "the excess capacity of autos" is open to question. He believes that even if the vehicle is overcapacity, over-investment will cause waste of resources from the perspective of national interests, but from the perspective of market economy, the phenomenon that the auto production capacity in China's market is greater than demand will exist for a long time, and only competition is sufficient. In order to develop rationally, there will be some companies that will be eliminated during this period.
Analysts from Guotai Junan stated that they cannot overstate the overcapacity in the auto industry. From an international perspective, the global capacity utilization rate is between 70% and 75%, while the capacity utilization rate of China's auto industry is 65%-70%. On the surface, it seems to be lower than the international average, but many companies in our country still count the production capacity of idle production lines for some reasons. If these ineffective production capacities are really eliminated, the capacity utilization rate of China's auto industry will increase to 80%-85%.
Some economists believe that excess capacity is not a bad thing. Overcapacity is the concept of planned economy. Under the conditions of market economy, some redundant construction should be allowed. Without certain overcapacity, there will not be sufficient market competition. In a sense, overcapacity may become a catalyst for mergers, reorganizations and industry consolidation in the automotive industry.
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