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Coal: The End of the Golden Age
Two major factors that may change the coal industry's economic climate: The booming cycle of the coal industry has lasted for about seven years. The profitability is significantly higher than other downstream industries. This situation may change due to changes in the following factors: First, economic growth. The shift of the model is the adjustment of the demand of the coal industry's own production capacity.
The approach to economic growth has reached or approached the critical point of change: In 2009, under the cumulative effects of government-funded investment and real estate investment recovery, the proportion of fixed asset investment in GDP has reached a record high of 58%, and per capita crude steel production capacity is close to the industrialization of developed countries. The peak of per capita output at the time of realization indicates that the “black cat†growth model based on energy-intensive high-growth and carbon-intensive high growth has reached or approached the critical point, and the demand for coal that is heavily relied on by heavy chemical industry is facing a slowdown in growth. may.
The coal supply has no near-term concern but far-reaching concern: The supply release was relatively stable from 2010 to 2011, with an average annual production capacity of around 130-140 million tons. However, the timetable for supply surge has been clear: In 2012, Shanxi will gradually release 450 million tons of incremental production capacity. After the railway was opened in 2013-2014, about 300 million tons of production capacity in Xinjiang began to impact the mainland market, and there is considerable price competitiveness.
The demand for real estate regulation in the second half of the year reduces the demand increase caused by PK protection housing: The real estate industry itself consumes nearly 25% of coking coal, which is calculated according to the time lag between sales changes and new start-up changes, and the third and fourth quarters. The start of decline will drive down the demand for coal in intermediate links; according to the land supply plan of the Ministry of Land and Resources, the area of ​​land supply for housing will be 24,500 hectares, which is an increase of 123.16% compared with 2009. If we can start all, we can make up for a 10% decline in other real estate investments.
In the second half of 2010, energy-saving and emission-reduction challenges will be made. Coal demand: According to the “11th Five-Year Plan†requirement for energy consumption per unit of GDP to drop by 20%, this year's GDP energy consumption needs to drop by more than 5%. According to our scenario analysis, this year's GDP coal consumption has dropped by 3%. Under the scenario of GDP growth of 10%, the coal demand is 3.2 billion tons, which is 100 million tons less than the energy consumption level at 2009 levels. Among them, steel is a key industry for energy conservation and emission reduction. According to the energy consumption targets of key steel enterprises in the first quarter, only one coke ratio is included in the furnace, and 41% of the reduction in the backward value to the advanced value. Under the premise of a 20% increase in pig iron production in 2010, assuming a 5% drop in coke ratio, it will consume nearly 25 million tons of coking coal.
The end of the golden era of the coal industry: From the perspective of different rhythms of supply and demand changes, we believe that the first half of 2010 is a high point of profit for the coal industry. The golden age of the coal industry is drawing to a close and it will experience an adjustment period of at least three years in the future. .