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In more than a year, China's polysilicon industry has experienced a "roller coaster" from great joy to great sadness.
The release of production capacity suffered cold prices According to report, in September 2008, the price of polysilicon used for solar photovoltaic cells was once raised to 500 US dollars/kg, and as a result of a number of “silicon-related†listed company projects reaching production. The price of polysilicon has plummeted all the way to the point where it fell below $55/kg by May 2009 and is currently staying at around $50/kg. The price has shrunk by 90%.
Affected by this, polysilicon concept listed companies have been left out of investors. From May 2009 to January 2010, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 30%, while Tianwei Change, CSG A, Tongwei, Aerospace, Leshan Electric, Chuantou Energy and other companies not only did not rise, but instead Different degrees of decline.
In this regard, Huatai Securities researcher Cheng Peng believes that the cost of domestic manufacturers are mostly 50 to 60 US dollars / kg, and the current market price is basically the same, it is difficult to contribute profits for listed companies. "These polysilicon projects have started to lose money in the fourth quarter of 2009," he said.
In the face of falling polysilicon market prices, most companies responded by cutting production. The registered company in Shenzhen CSG A has planned to invest 6 billion yuan in polysilicon projects. The first phase of the 1,500-ton project entered commercial operation in October 2009. According to the company’s staff, the current monthly production of polysilicon is about 70 to 80 tons, which only accounts for about 60% of the production capacity. However, she said that the failure to fully utilize capacity is not due to economic considerations but technical factors.
"Polysilicon is equivalent to a chemical system, and it is necessary to continuously debug it from the start of production. It does not mean that all the production lines will reach production as soon as the production line is completed. It needs a process of gradual improvement." She also said that as polysilicon prices fall, it will inevitably affect subsequent investment. . It is understood that CSG A has a total investment of 6 billion yuan in polysilicon and plans to achieve a capacity of 4,500 tons. This also means that the subsequent 3,000-ton project may be delayed.
Leshan Power has an annual output of 3,000 tons of polysilicon projects. It was successfully commissioned in September 2009. Company staff said that in terms of current market prices, its polysilicon project still has room for profit. However, the person refused to disclose the specific output, saying that it was only at the trial production stage.
Tongwei shares that the overall situation of the polysilicon industry in 2010 is not optimistic. At present, the company's first 1,000-ton project has been put into production. However, the company’s staff did not disclose monthly production. It only stated that the utilization rate for the production capacity had reached 70%. With regard to the profit margin after the drop in polysilicon prices, the staff claimed that their production costs were lower in the industry. "In the first phase of the 1,000-ton project, 200 tons use our unique patented technology, which has a great advantage in production costs, and another 800 tons use the Siemens method commonly used in the industry." The person said that the financial costs drag on performance despite many The company stated that its own polysilicon production cost is still below the market price, but people in the industry expressed different opinions. Researcher Ma Jianlu Sheng Lei believes that the average production cost of the domestic polysilicon industry is between 50 and 60 US dollars / kg. The current market price is about 55 dollars, so there will be a considerable part of the company's losses.
In addition, although the reduction in output can reduce losses, the financial costs and equipment depreciation costs will not be reduced accordingly. According to the introduction of Sheng Lei, financial costs and equipment depreciation are divided into two cases: In the case of the company has not officially reached production, the financial costs incurred due to construction are not included in the current expenses, but are counted in fixed assets, not in the short term The performance will be dragged down; when the production is announced, depreciation of equipment and amortization of equipment will be generated in addition to the financial costs such as interest, which is not reduced by the reduction in output. If, due to market reasons, the delay in the announcement of production, will shorten the amortization period of the equipment and increase the depreciation costs in the later period.
On the other hand, the “surplus†of polysilicon production in the short term seems to continue in 2010. Zhou Tao, an analyst at Great Wall Securities, predicts that China's domestic polysilicon production is expected to reach 56.70 million tons in 2010, corresponding to a crystalline silicon battery of 7.1 GW. In 2009, 23% of the polysilicon needed for China's solar cells depends on imports. Under the premise that China will limit the import of polysilicon in the future, if the global photovoltaic industry has a 50% increase in 2010, China's polysilicon battery output is expected to reach 5.25 GW in 2010. For the 7.1GW supply, the surplus is about 35%. However, he believes this surplus is still within an acceptable range.
Although starting from May 2009, polysilicon concept stocks have been in a fluctuating or even falling trend during the overall upward movement of the A-share market, but valuations show that the sector is still above the market average. According to estimates, the static price-to-earnings ratio of polysilicon concept listed companies is approximately 70 times, and the static P/B ratio is approximately 6 times, far higher than the average P/E ratio of 28 times that of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares and 4.28 times of average PBR. In addition, with a 6x market rate, the return on investment of the polysilicon sector was 1.7%, which is also lower than the current 3.33% deposit rate.
Polysilicon production release suffered cold prices
"The current polysilicon price is still above our cost line, but in order to control the risk, our current capacity utilization rate is only two or three percent," said a person from the securities department of a listed company that started in the polysilicon industry in 2007.