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The just-concluded Central Economic Work Conference has brought a warm welcome to the hard-working Chinese because the meeting clearly stated that the government will invest more financial resources to improve people's livelihood and promote social harmony. However, commercial vehicle companies are sniffing cold breath. “Preventing economic growth from being overly fast to overheating, preventing price from structural upswing to obvious inflation, and monetary policy shifting from robust to tight,†this may mean a market depression for commercial vehicle companies.
FAW Trade Corporation's marketing department predicts that the total truck market will drop by 5% to 10% next year.
Wang Wenbing, deputy general manager of Yutong Bus, is not optimistic about the overall growth of the bus industry next year.
Deng Ping, general manager of Chongqing Hengtong Bus Co., Ltd. believes that due to changes in the macroeconomic environment, the survival of the fittest will increase in the bus industry next year.
China National Heavy Duty Truck, Dongfeng Liuzhou Automobile and Shaanxi Zhongqi are studying the spirit of the conference and the market situation next year.
Two years ago, a similar situation occurred in the heavy truck market. In 2004, investment in fixed assets across the country remained high, resources were tight, and credit expanded too much. In the first half of 2005, the state intensified its macro-control over the overheated industries, the investment in fixed assets dropped drastically, investment in new projects decreased, and the heavy truck market fell into a downturn, showing the first negative growth in eight years, and the decline rate was nearly 40%. .
"The market curve of medium-heavy trucks is consistent with the growth curve of the national economy and is consistent with the curve for China's 5-year economic development plan. This has been verified in the past 30 years." The conclusion. Some people have done statistics. In 1979, 1985, 1989, 1999, and 2005, the five macro-controls all had a tightening effect on the truck market. This time, the intensity of regulation and control was even worse than the previous five.
This is the first time China has put forward a tight monetary policy in 10 years. As of now, the central bank raised interest rates five times in a year, and the sixth interest rate hike seems to be on the verge. In the first two days, the deposit reserve ratio was raised to 14.5%, which was the 10th time the central bank raised the benchmark, and 14.5% has hit a record high for more than 20 years. It is also very rare on a global scale.
Analysts in the Marketing Department of FAW Trading Corporation believe that although the current domestic infrastructure investment remains unabated and the demand for large-scale projects under construction is still large, it is foreseeable that new projects will be implemented along with the new macroeconomic policies. The reduction has a great impact on the new demand for trucks. On the other hand, changes in consumer credit policies have also had a significant impact on the truck market. It is reported that 40% to 50% of truck buyers now use loans. In the border areas of Tangshan and Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, this purchase method dominates. Loan approval is difficult. The increase in interest rates will inevitably inhibit some of the demand, and the impact on the market cannot be underestimated.
Although passenger car products are mainly used to improve residents' travel and are less affected by the decline in fixed investment, Deng Ping believes that the tightening of capital supply for the entire society will inevitably affect the passenger car industry. He recalled that the macro regulation and control in 1995 and 2005 had a great influence on the passenger car industry. Before and after 1993, many local passenger and passenger car projects, the bus industry team was huge, after a round of macro-control, many small businesses disappeared. Today, the bus industry is likely to face a clean-up again. Of course, this is a good thing for big companies.
Related to this, some people in the industry believe that due to China's huge trade surplus, next year's economic policy will further adjust the export policy, such as the possibility of canceling the export tax rebate policy. Although China’s commercial vehicles have prominent price advantages in the world, the adjustment of export policies and the acceleration of RMB appreciation will also affect the overseas expansion of China’s commercial vehicles.
In addition to the impact on the market, Deng Ping believes that this round of macro-control may have an adverse impact on the bus companies that are expanding. Companies that are increasing their production capacity and building new factories may be under tremendous financial pressure under the new economic policies. Some projects under construction may be temporarily abandoned.