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From the end of 2005 to the end of 2005, China’s economy ships will enter a new year. The recently concluded Central Economic Work Conference carried out specific plans for economic work next year.
2006 is the first year of the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€. It is of utmost importance to accurately grasp the new intentions of this meeting, grasp new information, and grasp new points.
Watch point 1
Economic growth does not pursue excessive speed
[Policy] To stabilize macroeconomic policies next year and maintain a good momentum of stable and rapid economic growth.
[Interpretation] The steady and rapid growth means that next year's economic speed is neither too low nor too high. “We are not overly pursuing high growth rates, maintaining continuity and stability in macroeconomic policies, and preventing the economic ups and downs.†This is the primary policy message that many policy analysts feel.
The appropriate growth rate for the economy next year, consistent with the requirements of the scientific concept of development, will be conducive to the economic development of the focus on adjusting the economic structure, transforming the mode of economic growth, improve economic efficiency, and will help prevent one-sided pursuit and blindly compare the development speed. The “double stable†fiscal policy and monetary policy are unchanged, and continuing to use good land and credit as two gates to prevent investment from rebounding and rebounding is a concentrated expression of “stabilizing macroeconomic policies†and also a steady and rapid growth of the economy next year. System protection.
Watch 2
Macro-control Swords Overcapacity
[Policy] One task of economic work next year is to promote the adjustment of some industries with overcapacity. This will be an important and arduous task for macro-control next year.
[Interpretation] One day before the Central Economic Work Conference, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council hosted the State Council Executive Meeting on November 28. In response to the severe problems and over-effects of overcapacity resulting from over-investment in some industries such as steel, cement, and non-ferrous metals, the meeting pointed out that “If this issue is not addressed, it will further aggravate the irrational industrial structure and affect the sustained and healthy development of the economy.â€
The data shows that the steel production capacity is currently larger than the market demand of 120 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum idle capacity is 2.6 million tons; the capacity of the calcium carbide industry is half-empty... While the production capacity is excess, more new projects are being launched.
Concentrated by the excessive release of excess capacity and raw material prices are double squeeze, the loss of loss-making enterprises in China at present increased by 57.6% year-on-year. Against this backdrop of severe circumstances, a series of recent moves by the country have shown that steel, cement, nonferrous metals, and other industries with excess capacity will undoubtedly be the referendum of macro-control by Jianfeng next year.
The National Development and Reform Commission has clearly pointed out that in the future, projects and enterprises that are not in compliance with the state’s industrial policy and market access conditions and that have been explicitly eliminated by the State will not be allowed to provide loans and land. The environmental protection and safety supervision departments shall not handle relevant procedures.
Watch 3
The consumption field will continue to expand
[Policy] Expanding domestic demand is a long-term strategic approach and basic foothold for China's economic development. Efforts should be made to readjust the relationship between investment and consumption, and increase the consumption of households, especially farmers, as the focus of expanding consumer demand, and constantly expand the consumption sector and improve the consumer environment.
[Interpretation] Among the "three-drive" carriages that have driven economic growth in 2005, consumption growth has lagged behind growth rates in trade surpluses and fixed-asset investments. The figures show that since 2001, the average annual growth rate of investment in fixed assets in China has reached as high as 22.5%. At the same time, consumption has only increased by 10.7%. The contribution of investment and consumption to GDP growth has been extremely inharmonious.
China is currently in the stage of escalating the consumption structure of its residents. The national savings rate is high and the market has great potential, which determines that China needs and has the conditions to rely on domestic demand to promote economic development. Given the current high investment growth and the need to change the mode of trade growth, expanding domestic demand is the key to maintaining a healthy economic development.
Raising the minimum living guarantee standard for urban residents, strictly implementing the minimum wage system for enterprises, opening up the rural market, broadening the consumption area, and improving the consumption environment will be the policy orientation for expanding consumption next year. Measures such as reducing the tax burden on ordinary residents' housing and automobile consumption, and stopping restrictions on the use of small-displacement vehicles are also expected to be introduced, which will enable people to dare to consume, form ample domestic demand drivers, and “burn up†the consumer market.
Watching point 4
Investment tilted to rural infrastructure
[Policy] Effectively launch the rural market, expand domestic demand, and change investment direction.
[Interpretation] The key difficulties in building a well-off society in an all-round way are in rural areas. The Fifth Plenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee clearly put forward the historic task and requirements for building a new socialist countryside. This is a major decision concerning the overall situation of modernization. The construction of a new socialist countryside will take a strong step in 2006.
According to the deployment of the conference, it is necessary to stabilize the development of food production, actively promote the increase of farmers' income, strengthen the construction of rural infrastructure and the development of social undertakings, and comprehensively promote measures such as comprehensive rural reforms so as to achieve a good start in the construction of a new socialist countryside next year.
Among them, “Strengthening agricultural and rural infrastructure construction†is a powerful measure. It is a major shift in the direction of investment that focuses on urban construction for many years and will pay more attention to rural construction. It will directly stimulate rural consumption, promote modern agricultural development, and expand Domestic demand.
Watching point 5
Oil price reform will be put on the agenda
[Policy] The main task of the current reform is to resolve deep-level contradictions and problems in economic and social development and eliminate institutional barriers that affect the development of science. In the next year, new breakthroughs must be made in some important areas and key links.
[Interpretation] State-owned enterprise reforms, commercial bank shareholding reforms, and equity splitting reforms have now entered the "deepwater region" and will be the "big play" that will not be passed in the next year. Speeding up the reform of resource products such as oil and natural gas will also be put on the agenda.
Deepening the reform of state-owned enterprises is a key task that we must do well next year. Large-scale central enterprises such as Baosteel, Shenhua, China Chengtong, and China Railcom have already implemented pilot boards. Li Rongrong, director of the SASAC, said that more than a hundred enterprises regulated by the SASAC will complete this reform by 2008, and next year will be a critical year.
The split share structure reform has entered a critical period. As the most significant institutional change in the Chinese stock market, this reform aims to cure the stock market's inherent defects. During this period of winter, spring and spring, reforms will be difficult and difficult, and the direction of reform will not change, confidence will not change, and basic policies will not change.
As China's accession to the WTO "transitional period" will be completed by the end of 2006, the reform of the financial system will not be overdone. Grasping the reform of commercial banks and fundamentally strengthening the international competitiveness of financial institutions is a major task for next year.
Watching point 6
Environmental protection will be included in the cadre assessment
[policy] Saving energy resources As one of the major tasks of economic work next year, it is essential to achieve significant results. Under the goal of saving energy and reducing consumption, high-energy-consuming industries and enterprises such as iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, electric power, and building materials will be forced to eliminate backward technologies, processes and products.
[Interpretation] Since the beginning of this year, the international oil prices that have been pulled up all the way have also driven up the price of refined oil products in China. Local governments have been forced to raise prices for water and electricity, which affects the quality of life of residents.
The tight coal, electricity, and oil shipments revealed in the economy have fully demonstrated that the high energy consumption and shortage of energy resources have become a “confidential problem†that has constrained China’s economic growth, and has caused serious environmental pollution and ecological damage.
Some time ago, water pollution in the Songhua River forced the water stopover in Harbin City and once again sounded the alarm for environmental protection. The meeting also conveyed the message that environmental protection should be included in the assessment of local governments and leading cadres, and the assessment results should be regularly announced.
“This means that a large industrial deployment in one area, as small as one company, and the consumption of energy and environmental bills, will become a problem that decision makers at all levels have to face.†said Professor Zheng Baowei, a sociologist.
According to Xinhua News Agency
The "Beijing Times" (A02, December 5, 2005)